The widely accepted claim by journalists, politicians, and some researchers that there are 11-12 million illegal aliens residing in the U.S. is blatantly false (aka – misinformation). Based on a 2018 Yale-MIT study (Zarandi, Feinstein, and Kaplan), with adjustments made for migration trends from recent U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS, 2022) and Customs and Border Protection (CBP, 2024) data, the U.S. illegal/unauthorized alien population was closer to 27-28 million at the end of January 2024.

As noted by Zarandi (et al.):

[The predominant 11 million] estimate is based on variants of the residual method. In this method, the size of the unauthorized immigrant population residing in the United States is set equal to the estimate of the total foreign-born population minus the legally resident foreign-born population. The total foreign-born population estimate is derived from surveys that ask respondents whether they were born outside of the United States (and whether they are American citizens), specifically either the American Community Survey or the Current Population Survey. The legally resident foreign-born population is estimated using administrative data on legal admissions.[i]

The inherent problem with the residual method is that it relies heavily on unauthorized aliens responding to U.S. Census Bureau (USCB) surveys, a “survey method [that] doesn’t effectively reach a group with incentives to stay undetected.” Where Zarandi (et al.) differ is that their research methodology does not rely on USCB data as the baseline for their assumptions. Instead, they take a straightforward and more reasonable approach to their research. “The population today is equal to the initial population plus everyone who came in minus everyone who went out. It’s that simple.”[ii]

The Yale-MIT study relies on DHS and CBP data to determine:[iii]

1. Population inflows: (I) undocumented immigrants who initially entered the country legally but have overstayed their visas; and (II) immigrants who have illegally crossed the border without being apprehended, and
2. Population outflows: (I) voluntary emigration; (II) mortality; (III) deportation; and (IV) change of status from unauthorized to lawful.

Using this mythology instead of the residual method, the researchers conducted a more thorough and accurate analysis of the unauthorized alien population in the U.S. from 1990-2016. “After running 1,000,000 simulations of the model, the researchers’ 95% probability range was 16 million to 29 million, with 22.1 million as the mean” unauthorized alien population in FY 2016.

Applying the same methodology as Zarandi (et al.) to fiscal years 2017-2024, a conservative estimate of the unauthorized alien population in the U.S. at the end of January 2024 is 27-29 million.

When we add the 5.3 million increase from FY 2017 to FY 2024 to the Yale-MIT study (22.1 million), we end up with an unauthorized alien population of 27.4 million at the end of January 2024. Additionally, when we add in the total number of unknown gotaways (242,068- 484,136),[iv] the unauthorized alien population increase for the period jumps to 5,579,065-5,821,133. Moreover, after experiencing a 1.1 million decrease from FY2017-2020, the unauthorized alien population increased by 6.4 million from FY2021 to the period ending in January 2024. Should the trajectory of the first four months of FY 2024 (October 2023 – January 2024) remain the same through the end of FY 2024, the U.S. unauthorized alien population will rise to more than 30 million. Although this number is staggering, the real eyebrow-raiser is the stark increase in FY 2022-2024 compared to FY 2017-2021. The following chart shows that while the unauthorized alien population experienced a 5.1% decrease by from FY 2017-2021, it experienced an 18.9% increase from FY 2022 to 2023.

An analysis of the data also indicates that the increase in the unauthorized alien population is directly proportional to the increase in illegal land border crossings between ports of entry.

When we compare the adjusted unauthorized alien population and illegal land border crossings between the Trump and Biden administrations, it becomes abundantly clear that Biden’s rescinding of the Trump era remain in Mexico policy and resumption of catch-and-release practices (2021) and the expiration of Title 42 (2022), opened up U.S. land borders to unfettered illegal border crossing and the exponential increase in the unauthorized alien population.

What this tells us is that when the U.S. border is secure and controlled in accordance with Public Law 109–367, §2, Oct. 26, 2006, 120 Stat. 2638, “(b) Achieving Operational Control on the Border, immigration law promulgated in 8 U.S.C. Aliens and Nationality, Chapter 12 – Immigration and Nationality, Part II – Admission Qualifications for Aliens, Travel Control of Citizens and Aliens, and 8, U.S.C. §1324(a) – Offenses are enforced, illegal U.S. land border crossings and the unauthorized alien population will decrease. On the other hand, when the border is left unsecured, and the federal government does not secure the border nor enforce immigration law, illegal land border crossings and the unauthorized alien population will rise to unmanageable levels.

The current level of unauthorized migration into the U.S. puts a strain not only on C.B.P. personnel but also on the financial resources of federal, state, and local governments, as well as law enforcement, emergency services, healthcare facilities, schools, housing, and low skilled worker jobs in the communities the migrants settle in. Sanctuary cities that once welcomed unauthorized aliens with open arms now find themselves overwhelmed by the burdens placed on public services and the financial cost of supporting this rising population. Many cities have reached a breaking point, with mayors begging the federal government for economic relief and some even considering their city policies.

This is where we find ourselves now: the personification of the 1966 Cloward-Piven strategy to engineer a crisis by exploiting the law and its practice to ultimately bring about the collapse of the American capitalist system and replace it with a socialist economic system and form of government.

Recommended Citation: ©Crow Jr., Art (2024), How Many Unauthorized Aliens Are In The U.S.?, https://withmaliceaforethought.com/how-many-unauthorized-aliens-are-in-the-u-s/

---

Notes:

1. Presidential Term adjustments: Since the fiscal year begins in October and the presidential term begins in January of the following year, data for the Trump and Biden administrations are adjusted to reflect actual numbers of illegal border crossing and unauthorized alien population numbers for their respective terms in office. When Biden assumed office in 2021, Trump was responsible for all activity for the first 4-months of FY 2021, and Biden was responsible for the remaining 8-months of the fiscal year.
2. Encounters are illegal land border crossers who processed and then released into the U.S.
3. Expulsions, removals and returns are the sum of all administrative returns, deportations, and Title 42 expulsions for the fiscal year.
4. As there is no way to know the number of unauthorized aliens who voluntarily leave the U.S. in any given fiscal year, CBP and DHS cannot make an accurate determination of the number of voluntary emigrations during a fiscal. The 5% applied is a conservative average of the Yale-MIT study estimate of voluntary emigration rates by unauthorized aliens who have remained in the U.S. for 1, 2-10, and 10+ years (avg. 3.75%), plus 1.25% to account for any potential increases during FY2017-2024. Emigration(EM) is expressed as percentage of the population at the beginning of the fiscal year (P) plus encounters(E), known gotaways(G), and overstays (O), multiplied an annual emigration rate of 5%. (EM = (P+E+G+O) x -.05)
5. Mortality(M) is expressed as percentage of the population at the beginning of the fiscal year (P) + encounters(E), known gotaways(G), and overstays (O), multiplied an annual mortality rate of 0.7% (Zarandi, et al.) (M = (P+E+G+O) x -.007).

References:

1. 42 U.S.C. § 265 – Suspension of entries and imports from designated places to prevent spread of communicable diseases. Whenever the Surgeon General determines that by reason of the existence of any communicable disease in a foreign country there is serious danger of the introduction of such disease into the United States, and that this danger is so increased by the introduction of persons or property from such country that a suspension of the right to introduce such persons and property is required in the interest of the public health, the Surgeon General, in accordance with regulations approved by the President, shall have the power to prohibit, in whole or in part, the introduction of persons and property from such countries or places as he shall designate in order to avert such danger, and for such period of time as he may deem necessary for such purpose. In 2020, President Trump approved Title 42 expulsions in response to the Civid-19 pandemic. Expulsions began on March 21, 2020 and ended on May 11, 2023. https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/42/265
2. 8 U.S.C. Aliens and Nationality, Chapter 12 – Immigration and Nationality, Part II – Admission Qualifications for Aliens; Travel Control of Citizens and Aliens https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/USCODE-2011-title8/html/USCODE-2011-title8-chap12-subchapII-partII-sec1182.htm#:~:text=Any%20alien%20who%20at%20any,violation%20of%20law%20is%20inadmissible
3. U.S. Department of Justice Manual CRM 1500-1999, 1907. Title 8, U.S.C. 1324(a) Offenses https://www.justice.gov/archives/jm/criminal-resource-manual-1907-title-8-usc-1324a-offenses
4. U.S. Department of Homeland Security, Entry/Exit Overstay Report https://www.dhs.gov/publication/entryexit-overstay-report
5. U.S. Customs and Border Protection, Stats and Summaries https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats
6. U.S. Department of Homeland Security, Office of Homeland Security Statistics, Yearbook of Immigration Statistics https://www.dhs.gov/ohss/topics/immigration/yearbook
7. U.S. House Committee on Homeland Security, Factsheet: Final FY23 Numbers Show Worst Year At America’s Borders—Ever https://homeland.house.gov/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/September-Startling-Stats.pdf
8. 8 U.S.C. – Aliens and Nationality, §1701: Definitions, Achieving Operational Control on the Border, Pub. L. 109–367, §2, Oct. 26, 2006, 120 Stat. 2638, “(b) Operational Control Defined. – In this section, the term ‘operational control’ means the prevention of all unlawful entries into the United States, including entries by terrorists, other unlawful aliens, instruments of terrorism, narcotics, and other contraband.” https://uscode.house.gov/statviewer.htm?volume=120&page=2638

---

[i] Fazel-Zarandi MM, Feinstein JS, Kaplan EH (2018), The number of undocumented immigrants in the United States: Estimates based on demographic modeling with data from 1990 to 2016. PLoS ONE 13(9): e0201193. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0201193 [Last accessed: 02/23/2024]

[ii] Yale Insights, Ideas from the Yale School of Management, Yale Study Finds Twice as Many Undocumented Immigrants as Previous Estimates (2018) https://insights.som.yale.edu/insights/yale-study-finds-twice-as-many-undocumented-immigrants-as-previous-estimates#:~:text=Generally%20accepted%20estimates%20put%20the,be%20more%20than%2022%20million

[iii] Ibid.

[iv] When questioned about the number of unknown gotaways at the U.S. Southern land border during a House of Representatives Homeland Security Committee investigation, Chief of U.S. Border Patrol Raul Ortiz, testified: “In my estimation, based upon the situational awareness that I have, probably between 10 to 20 percent, sir.” U.S. House of Representative, Homeland Security Committee Republicans Confirm the Cause of This Unprecedented Border Crisis: Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas (03/16/2023). https://homeland.house.gov/2023/12/20/border-sector-chiefs-confirm-operational-impacts-of-border-chaos-increased-gotaways-closed-checkpoints-and-empowered-cartels/